Since ChuckJerry provided a lucid, intelligent, well-thought answer to the last two math questions, I thought I'd provide another one. You can easily search for the answer on the web. Please don't. And if you've heard it already, let people guess first. Use your intuition and ponder the following scenario. This is one of my favorites.
Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others are goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the other doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, "Do you want to keep your choice (Door No. 1)? Or do you want to switch to Door No. 2?"
Should you keep Door #1? Should you switch to Door #2? Or does it not matter which option you take?
(Chuck, birthday paradox to follow.)
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2 comments:
I recently read a whole series on a different blog on this very question. While I won't post the answer here (as you said, it's easy enough to find), I will say that it still doesn't sit easily. Some days it makes more sense, some days less, which is probably the least sensible thing that could happen.
I seem to remember understanding it better one day when someone altered the initial question from 3 doors to 100 doors. Today my understanding is murkier, but I do remember thinking, Well, that helps clear it up.
Actually, just having written that, I think I get it now. Huh.
Easy. Next question.
WV: feadece
This is a really good question. I won't ruin the answer for some enterprising young web surfer.
The answer to your next question is going to be 17 minutes.
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