Netflix is great!

More specifically, the online streaming through my PS3. This past Friday night, our family was trying to figure out what movie to watch so I decided to sign up for Netflix. I can't think of a better deal out there to watch movies, other than downloading (illegally) the movies. The first month is free, but even the $7.99/month fee after the first month is a tremendous deal. Renting two dvds from my local Blockbuster costs more than that. And especially with the Netflix app for the iphone, you can watch just about any movie you can think of any time, any place.

I was able to put that to use and finally watch The Big Lebowski. What an entertaining movie!

Next on my list of movies to watch late at night while I battle insomnia.....

Buyer’s Remorse

I know this post might be presumptuous. It will be a long time for the jury to deliberate on this, and we still don’t have all the evidence. However, watching last nights Knicks meltdown against the Celtics, I had the feeling of a man who went to the car dealership, traded his dependable car for a flashy new one, with all the bells and whistles, to only have the car make a strange noise when taken out on the highway for the first time. I guess the lesson learned…caveat emptor!

What concerned me last night, was not the Knicks blowing a 10 point 4th quarter lead (although that was bad); it was Carmelo leaving the game with two minutes trailing by four with a tiny cut above his eye, and not returning. By contrast, Ray Allen suffered a far worse cut over his eye, and put a bandage the size of Shaq’s head on and continued playing. When Carmelo collided with Rondo with two minutes left in the game, he laid at center court a la Vince Carter. Then, he grimaced in pain, holding his eye, as if he lost a leg in a war. It was truly a bitch move!

This incident in last night’s game comes right off Melo’s latest comments which already had me questioning his leadership. Melo recently said after a loss to the Bucks “it might take (until) next season.” What kind of bull shit statement is that?! Melo’ your team is the middle of playoff teams in the East, focus on this year! Comments like this made me realize there might be a good reason why this guy was never the leader of the Nuggets despite being by far the most talent player.

Also, I don’t think it’s a coincidence that opponents scoring per game against the Knicks have skyrocketed post the Melo deal. During the Knicks latest losing stretch, opponents were scoring 117 points. Amare’s matador, Dabney-like defense was bad enough, but Melo makes Amare look like Charles Oakley.

Maybe the problem is just learning how to gel with each other, but my big concern is that Amare and Melo’ are too similar. By similar, I not only mean two guys who can score at will and play no defense, but also two guys who score in similar ways. I really hope they can co-exist and bring winning back to NY, but so far, it doesn’t look good. Several weeks ago, prior to the weekend of the Melo deal being finalized I was discussing the move with MMG, Moon, Walt, and Daffy. MMG’s assessment regarding Melo coming to the Knicks was, “Ghetto guys don’t win championships.” I hope he’s not right.

Jeopardy! Math

Alex Trebek, the most pompous of all game-show hosts.


As a Jeopardy! fan, I enjoyed this article from 10+ years ago that presents some interesting scenarios about how one should bet in Final Jeopardy. I wonder if actual players on the show ever think that deeply and mathematically about their final bets. Not that the ideas in the article are super mathematically complicated, but still very interesting. Read on.

(And, the author of the article is named Matt Gaffney!)


Math for Jeopardy! Players
How contestants regularly blow their final bet.
By Matt Gaffney
Posted Thursday, July 20, 2000, at 3:00 AM ET

Why do so many Jeopardy! contestants blow it in the final round? Picture this scene, from the March 21, 2000 show: Going into "Final Jeopardy!" Andrew was in the lead with $8,000, Haley was in second with $5,700, and Dave was back in third with $2,700.

If you're Andrew in this situation, deciding on your bet is simple, assuming for argument's sake that the Final Jeopardy! category is neutral, i.e., one you know neither particularly well nor particularly poorly. Andrew's rational path is to wager the minimum he needs to put himself out of Haley's reach—that is, enough to give him twice her current score, plus $1. That's $3,401 in this case, which is precisely what Andrew wound up betting.

For Haley, betting is more complicated. Before I tell you how she should have bet, consider how she did bet. Like most contestants, she took a deep final-scene-of-Thelma-&-Louise breath, bet $5,600, got the final question wrong, and lost. Andrew got it right, won $11,401, and went back the next day. Dave, if anyone cares, bet the house, got Final Jeopardy! wrong, and wound up with nothing.

Here's what Haley should have bet: $299. Notice that the way she actually bet, the only way she could have won is if she'd gotten Final Jeopardy! right and Andrew had gotten it wrong. Obviously, if Andrew answers correctly, the game's over, no matter what Haley does.
By betting $299, Haley gives herself an extra chance. If Andrew gets it right, he still wins, as before. And, as before, if Haley gets it right and Andrew misses it, Haley wins. Here's the difference: If Haley bets $299 and they both miss Final Jeopardy! Haley wins. Her final total would be $5,401, while Andrew would be down at $4,599.

Why can't Haley bet more than $299? Because she has to guard against Dave, whose maximum score, if he bets everything and gets Final Jeopardy! right, would be $5,400. Note that, with correct wagering, Dave is a non-factor in this Final Jeopardy! equation. Even if he bet it all and got it right, he still wouldn't be able to overcome Haley, even if she answered incorrectly.
All this wouldn't have helped Haley in this case, since Andrew answered Final Jeopardy! correctly. But had he missed it, she would've won.

For the player in second place, this all boils down to betting an amount that still gives you the win if both you and the player in the lead miss Final Jeopardy! A wagering-savvy former Jeopardy! champ has labeled this "The Two-Thirds Rule," because the second-place player needs at least two-thirds of the leading player's score going into Final Jeopardy! to be able to pull this off. (Click here for more on the two-thirds rule.)



If the third player is close enough to worry about, as in the example above, you need to guard as much as possible against him. The following scenario from a recent show is a perfect illustration of this principle. Going into Final Jeopardy!, Melizza was in the lead with $7,500. Second was Miles with $7,300, and third was Judy with $5,800.

Again, the leader's bet is easy to calculate, and Melizza did in fact wager the correct amount: $7,101 (again, that gives Melizza twice Miles' score plus $1 if she gets it right). Miles should bet $4,301, while Judy should bet $2,800.

Why? To answer that, we'll only deal with scenarios in which Melizza gets it wrong — because if she bets correctly and gets the answer right, the game's over no matter what.
Miles' bet of $4,301 puts him out of Judy's striking range should he answer correctly, as he'd finish with $11,601, or two times Judy's score plus a dollar.

Judy's correct bet, $2,800, gives her that extra chance that Haley should have had in the first example. By betting $2,800, she can win if all three players miss the last question. With correct bets and all players missing Final Jeopardy!, Melizza winds up with $399, Miles finishes with $2,999, and we'll see Judy again tomorrow as our returning champion, as she's just finished with $3,000. (Naturally, if Judy gets it right and the others don't, she wins anyway.)

Sound too theoretical? Consider what actually happened: All three players missed the final question. Melizza wound up with $399—which was good enough to win, as her opponents had wagered absurdly. Miles bet the insane sum of $7,000, which left him with $300. Judy bet the house and wound up with nothing. Had Miles bet correctly (or even close to correctly—six grand would still have won it for him), he would have been champ. Or, barring that, Judy could have won it herself.

You may be wondering: If the first person knows that the second-place person is going to have this back door, why doesn't he simply bet just enough to outstrip the second place player's more modest bet? Because there's always the possibility that the second-place person will bet it all. And in practice, the person in first place almost always bets $1 or $100 over what he needs to put himself out of reach. It's this tendency that the second- and third-place players should take advantage of.

There are also a few subtleties we're glossing over — for instance, Haley, Miles, or Judy would get a bigger payday if they bet everything and won. But the safer bet provides the extra chance of simply surviving and coming back the next day. And anyway, the basic premise is clear: If you're in second or third place going into Final Jeopardy!, don't just automatically bet it all. Your better chance may be backing into victory.

Tourney Time

It’s that time of year for me to incorrectly predict the NCAA’s. I don’t even like my picks. Here we go…

East: Ohio State ( Nova) over Kentucky (WVA)
Cuse (X) over NC (Washington)

Winner: Ohio State

West: Duke (Tenn) over Texas (Zona)
Uconn (Miss) over San Diego (Temple)

Winner: Uconn

Southwest: Kansas (Illi.) over Louisville (Richmond)
Purdue (G’Town) over ND (Texas)

Winner: Kansas

Southeast: Pitt (Butler) over Wisc. (Kansas State)
Michigan State (Florida ) over BYU (St. Johns)

Winner: Pitt

Final Four: Ohio State over Uconn
Pitt over Kansas

Winner: Ohio State

My Fear of Flying Rats!

I was in 6th grade when the incident happened. By neighbor, two doors down, was an eccentric character. He approached me while I was playing basketball in my backyard one day and asked me if I wanted to watch his homing pigeons for him for a few days, as he was going on vacation. I quickly declined but when he offered me 75$ for a few days worth of work, my 6th grade head exploded. I thought, 75 bucks, wow! I thought that this was going to be the easiest money that I ever earned, boy oh boy was I wrong.

The neighbor walked me to the pigeon coup and provided me my instructions on a Sunday, the day before his departure. The coup was located in his backyard, which was approximately a 12 x 15 foot shed. Inside the coup, had little wooden open square holes on the wall, approximately 2 x 2 feet where the pigeons primarily sat. The coup housed approximately 50 pigeons. My neighbor had a huge “X” made out of tape which covered the roof of his house. He would let the pigeons out of the coup, wave a flag, at which time the pigeons would fly in patterns and land on the “X.” Then, he would wave his flag again and the pigeons would fly back into the coup. My job was supposed to be simple, on a daily basis, walk into the coup, take out the feeder and water jugs, fill the feeder with food and the jugs with water and place them back into the coup. The feeder was a long rectangular shape, approximately 5 feet with wooden slots slightly wider than the pigeons head, so they could line up and place their heads through the feeder to eat bird seed. I did not have to even let the pigeons out. Okay, it seemed simple enough to me.

Monday morning came around and I went to the coup before school. This was the 1st time I had to walk inside the coup. It was still slightly dark outside and it was at the end of winter so it was also cold. I took one step in and all the pigeons began flying around. All I could here was the sound pigeons make, and the smell was of pigeon shit. Scared, I quickly ran out before I grabbed the feeder and jugs. Shit, I thought, how was I going to do this? I conned my friend “Gamer Z” who I walked to school with for doing it for me. Although scared, “Gamer Z” was able to complete the task. I thought, okay “Gamer Z” will handle this for a few days and my job will be over. But, “Gamer Z” thwarted my plan. “Gamer Z” wised up to my idea and decided to leave earlier for school the next day, thus avoiding me and the situation entirely. So, I woke up my brother Walt, who was a freshman in high school to assist me with the task. Walt walked right into the coup, with birds landing on him with no fear at all. He stayed in the coup and grabbed the feeder and jugs. After filling the feeder and jugs up, my brother placed them in the coup.

Walt helped me out until the next to last day, when I had overslept and he already left for school. With “Gamer Z” and Walt no longer around to assist I would have to handle the job myself. I stood at the doorway of the coup hoping no pigeon would move. With school time starting, and not wanting to be late, I felt the pressure. There was a break in flying inside the coup and I quickly ran in and grabbed the feeder and jugs. After filling them up, I slid the jugs from the doorway back into the coup and picked up the feeder. I took a step inside in the coup, and lost my footing. I feel to the ground, facing up, inside the coup with the seed landing on top of me! Being barely light and looking up from the shit covered ground which, it felt like I was stuck to, the pigeons flocked to the food which was all over me. I could see shadows of pigeons flying all over toward me! The beasts were pecking away at me to eat the seed! I was paralyzed with fear and laid there for several moments, to me, the time felt like it lasted an eternity. I was able to see the doorway from the floor and realized some of pigeons were by the door of the coup which I had left open. Mustering enough strength, I broke free from my paralyzed state to try and close the door. It was too late, one pigeon had flown out!

I got out of the coup, and the stupid bird and flown on top of the coup. I found a net in my neighbor’s garage and tried to lasso in the bird. However, whenever I got close the bird would fly up and then land back right on top of the coup whenever I would take a step back toward the bird. I gave up and went late to school. That night it snowed.

On the last day of the job I went back to the coup. The pigeon that had gotten out, stayed on top of the coup overnight and was frozen like a Creamsicle on top of the coup. Mortified, and wanting to hide the evidence of my misdeed, I climbed on top of the coup and grabbed the dead frozen bird. I transported the dead frozen bird several blocks and threw him down a sewer.

I did not know if my neighbor, upon his return, would realize that I killed one of his beloved birds. I didn’t know if knew exactly how many birds he had, if he could distinguish them, if they were all named. But, when he came home he walked over to my house and paid me for a “job well done.” Two things happened after that day… One, I never watched the pigeons again. And two, as most people who know me are aware; I have a phobia of pigeons!

Where Everybody Knows Your Name- Year 2

I have been living in Boston for over a year! Here are some scattered reflections about the differences between living in Boston versus the suburbs of New Jersey.

-I live taking the train as my primary mode of transportation. When I lived in NJ, I never really took public transportation anywhere. Occasionally, I would take the bus or train train to NYC, but in my travels throughout the State, I would drive everywhere. And when I say everywhere, I mean everywhere! Now, not only do I take the train to work, I take it everywhere I have to go. There are many reasons why I take the train in Boston and never took public transportation in Jersey. I guess it’s more convenient (parking, traffic) to take the train than drive in Boston, plus the train goes basically everywhere. I wonder if NJ had a better public transportation system (quicker, went to more places) would people take public transportation as opposed to driving their own privately owned vehicles? Is driving in NJ somehow ingrained in the culture? I ponder these questions because places I walk to now I would have never walked in NJ due to distance.

-Boston is cool, relative to Jersey because Boston always has a lot of stuff going on. Everyday there’s all types of shit going on in the city. Plays, movies, bars/restaurants, or just a walk to the park or esplanade. It’s nice to be able to walk outside and do something, without having a planned event to go to.

-The downside of living in Boston is that I miss certain people. I have a lot of aquitances in Boston, but no one I would consider a friend. Most of the people I work with are old (relative to me), and I spend my spare time with my girlfriend (which I enjoy, but I could spend time with her if we lived in NJ). There has been nobody I really clicked with up here. I wonder if that’s my nature, or if people don’t have “friends” like they do when they are younger.

- The bagels suck in Boston as does the pizza! Also, nobody has Taylor Ham (or Pork Roll if you’re from South Jersey). It simply doesn’t exist in Boston…very strange.

-This winter has sucked in Boston! I guess it has sucked everywhere, but it has snowed so much up here, and when you walk everywhere it’s really a pain in the ass. It’s like a fucking videogame to get down the street. On that note, I busted my ass walking to the train the other morning on a patch of ice.

-I wonder if I am going to stay living up here, somewhere else, or move back to the NY/NJ metro area one day…